CBN: Reserves at $46.7bn, lending rates set to fall as inflation eases

Cardoso-CBN

Nigeria’s gross external reserves have surged past $46 billion for the first time since 2018, offering the strongest buffer against external shocks in nearly a decade, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced on Tuesday.

Speaking at the opening ceremony of the Monetary Policy Department’s 20th anniversary colloquium at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, represented by Deputy Governor (Economic Policy) Dr. Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, described the milestone as evidence of the success of ongoing economic reforms.

“This is the highest level we have attained since 2018,” Dr. Abdullahi told participants. “At the current level of approximately $46.7 billion, our reserves now provide coverage for more than 10 months of import bills – a significant improvement in our external sector resilience,” he said.

The buildup has been driven by a combination of the federal government’s recent Eurobond issuance, sustained foreign exchange inflows from portfolio investors, and higher crude oil receipts. October 2025 recorded the strongest monthly FX inflows since May, reflecting growing offshore confidence in Africa’s most populous nation.

In a further boost to optimism, the deputy governor hinted that borrowing costs could ease in the coming months as headline inflation continues its downward trajectory. “With inflation showing clear signs of moderation, we expect lending rates to begin declining gradually, which should enhance credit availability to the real sector and stimulate investment,” he said.

At the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira weakened marginally by 0.4 per cent on Monday, with the dollar closing at ₦1,448.03 compared to ₦1,442.43 the previous Friday. In contrast, the parallel market saw slight appreciation, with the naira gaining ₦2 to close at ₦1,455 from ₦1,457.

● FDI decline remains a concern

Despite the positive reserve momentum, foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped sharply by 25 per cent month-on-month to $222 million in October, underscoring lingering investor worries over insecurity in parts of the country, bureaucratic bottlenecks, and occasional policy flip-flops.

Analysts say sustained reserve accumulation, and the prospect of lower interest rates could help reverse the FDI trend if accompanied by bolder structural reforms and improved security.

For now, policymakers and market participants are celebrating a rare bright spot: a foreign reserves position that finally offers Nigeria meaningful breathing room on the global stage after years of depletion and dollar shortages.

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