The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has ended the uncertainty and concerns on the 2026 fiscal plan, following the approval of the 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
In the framework approved for submission to the National Assembly at Wednesday’s cabinet meeting, the federal government targets an ambitious crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd), with a worst-case scenario of 1.8 million barrels per day, and a benchmark price of $64 per barrel.
Atiku Bagudu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, said the medium-term fiscal plan projected N54.5 trillion ($37.71 billion), with an expected N34.33 trillion federal revenue.
This leaves a deficit of N20.1 trillion, or 3.61 per cent of GDP, and debt service costs estimated at N15.9 trillion.
Nonrecurrent debt spending is pegged at N15.27 trillion, highlighting the financial pressure on Africa’s most populous nation, with the naira expected to trade at ₦1,512 to $1 against the US dollar for the year.
Nigerians are in the dark about the 2025 budget, with its implementation still unclear.
Bagudu expressed confidence that with macroeconomic stability taking hold, it’s important to keep the current reforms on track. He noted that putting the outlined measures into action, alongside the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper, will help drive stronger and more lasting economic growth.
Under the approved plan, statutory transfers are pegged at about ₦3 trillion, debt servicing is set to hit ₦10.91 trillion, and non-recurrent expenses like personnel costs are estimated at ₦15.27 trillion. The deficit is forecast at ₦20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 per cent of the projected GDP.
The exchange rate assumption takes into account that 2026 comes right before a national election year, with all parameters based on thorough fiscal and macroeconomic analyses conducted by the Budget Office and other key agencies.
The Federal Executive Council also reviewed feedback and approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which sets spending limits and helps maintain a disciplined budgeting process.
President Tinubu asked the National Economic Council (NEC) to back increased vigilance nationwide to stop revenue losses caused by illegal activities in the oil and gas industry and the exploitation of key minerals.
He stressed the importance of major transformative investments in national infrastructure and called for renewed optimism about funding from both the federal government and Federation constituents. He also highlighted the need to boost domestic production and ensure the effective implementation of the updated work development programme.
