Guinea has confirmed it will contest a $28.9bn arbitration claim filed by Axis International Ltd, escalating a high-stakes legal battle over the revocation of a major bauxite mining licence earlier this year.
The dispute, which has been lodged at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), follows the Guinean government’s decision in May 2025 to withdraw Axis’s mining permit, citing alleged breaches of the country’s mining and tax regulations.
Government defends licence revocation
Speaking in Conakry, Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology, Bouna Sylla, said the government acted lawfully and would robustly defend its position at arbitration.
‘Guinea is fully prepared to defend itself,’ Sylla said, adding that Axis had failed to meet key obligations under its concession agreement.
According to the government, Axis did not invest adequately in the project and instead subcontracted significant parts of its operations, earning fees without building the industrial capacity required under Guinea’s mining code. Officials also allege shortcomings in tax compliance and operational transparency.
The licence revocation formed part of a broader review of mining permits launched by Guinea’s transitional authorities, aimed at enforcing stricter compliance and increasing domestic value addition in the extractive sector.
Axis disputes government claims
Axis International, which is based in the United Arab Emirates, has strongly rejected the government’s characterisation of its operations. The company says its mine in the Boffa region was fully operational and producing bauxite at the time the permit was cancelled.
In filings to ICSID, Axis argues that the licence withdrawal was arbitrary and violated international investment protections. The company claims it produced about 18 million tonnes of bauxite in 2024 and had identified reserves exceeding 800 million tonnes, forming the basis of its $28.9bn compensation demand.
Axis also maintains that it made repeated attempts to resolve the dispute amicably before turning to international arbitration.
A test case for Guinea’s mining policy
The arbitration is among the largest claims Guinea has faced and comes at a sensitive time for the country’s investment climate. Guinea holds some of the world’s largest bauxite reserves and is a critical supplier to the global aluminium industry.
Since seizing power in 2021, the military-led government under President Mamady Doumbouya has pushed for tighter control of natural resources, pressing mining firms to accelerate refinery construction, local processing and infrastructure development.
While officials argue the reforms are essential to ensure Guinea captures more value from its mineral wealth, investors have raised concerns about regulatory unpredictability and legal risk.
Wider implications for investors
Legal analysts say the outcome of the Axis case could shape future relations between Guinea and foreign mining companies. ICSID rulings are enforceable in many jurisdictions, meaning an adverse decision could have implications for Guinea’s public finances and access to international capital.
Axis has warned that failure to resolve the dispute could affect Guinea’s standing with lenders and development partners, though the government has dismissed such concerns.
For now, Conakry appears determined to take the case to its conclusion. As Guinea seeks to balance investor confidence with resource sovereignty, the arbitration is likely to be closely watched across Africa’s mining sector.
Credit: Africabriefing
