Guinea has been hit with a $28.9bn arbitration claim at a World Bank tribunal after a foreign investor accused the state of unlawfully revoking a bauxite mining permit, deepening tensions between the government and international mining companies operating in the country.
Axis International Ltd, a United Arab Emirates-based firm, said on Monday that it had filed the case at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), part of the World Bank Group. The claim follows Guinea’s decision earlier this year to cancel the company’s permit to operate a bauxite mine in the Boffa region.
Guinea holds the world’s largest known reserves of bauxite, the raw material used to produce aluminium, and is a critical supplier to global markets, particularly China. Over the past year, however, the country has embarked on a far-reaching overhaul of its mining sector, revoking and reallocating dozens of permits as it seeks to raise state revenues and accelerate domestic processing.
Permit revocation at heart of dispute
Axis International owns 85 percent of Axis Minerals Resources SA, a Guinean company that held the mining rights to the Boffa concession. According to Axis, the operating permit was terminated in May alongside many others as part of the government’s regulatory reset.
Guinean authorities have publicly argued that several revoked licences were either inactive or significantly underutilised, failing to meet contractual obligations on production, infrastructure or local development. Axis strongly disputes that assessment.
In a statement, the company said the Boffa mine was ‘operating at scale’, supporting thousands of workers and contributing meaningfully to Guinea’s export earnings. It said the government’s decision amounted to an unjustified termination that wiped out the economic value of a functioning operation.
Scale of the claim
Axis said its damages claim was calculated with reference to ‘proven reserves’ of more than 800 million metric tonnes of bauxite at the site. The mine produced an estimated 18 million metric tonnes of bauxite in 2024, which Axis said made it Guinea’s second-largest source of bauxite exports by volume.
At $28.9bn, the claim would rank among the largest investment arbitration cases ever brought against an African state, far exceeding Guinea’s annual gross domestic product. While such headline figures are often reduced through legal proceedings or settlements, the case underscores the high financial stakes attached to Guinea’s mining policy shift.
Guinea’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, the administration of transitional President Mamady Doumbouya has been vocal about its intention to ensure that the country’s vast mineral wealth delivers tangible benefits to its population.
Resource nationalism drive
Since taking power in 2021, the Doumbouya-led government has pursued a more assertive approach to natural resource governance. Officials have repeatedly criticised what they describe as speculative licence hoarding by companies that secure permits but delay investment and production.
The new approach prioritises faster project development, higher state revenues and greater local value addition, including plans for alumina refineries and related infrastructure. Permits revoked during the crackdown are expected to be reassigned to firms deemed capable of meeting these objectives.
Investor confidence tested
The Axis case is likely to be closely watched by investors, governments and legal experts across Africa, where disputes linked to resource nationalism have increasingly ended up before international arbitration panels.
ICSID proceedings typically take several years and involve complex legal arguments over treaty protections, contract terms and state sovereignty. For Guinea, the challenge will be to pursue its reform agenda while reassuring investors that regulatory enforcement will remain predictable and legally robust.
As one of the world’s most strategically important bauxite producers, Guinea’s handling of the dispute could shape perceptions of its mining sector for years to come.
Credit: Africabriefing.com
