Ghana’s drive to secure a larger share of its gold wealth is facing a test as Newmont chief executive Natascha Viljoen calls for investment certainty while the government raises royalties and prepares changes to the laws governing mining companies.
The stakes stretch well beyond one company. Ghana wants mining to deliver more public revenue, local business and tangible benefits for host communities. Producers say they need to understand the rules that will apply over the decades required to develop and operate a mine.
Newmont asks what the new rules mean
In an interview with Miningmx published on October 9, following the Joburg Indaba conference in Johannesburg, Viljoen was asked about Ghana’s changing business environment.
‘The landscape has definitely changed,’ she said.
The Newmont boss did not suggest that the company was leaving Ghana. Her concern was more practical: how can companies commit capital to projects when key parts of the fiscal and ownership framework remain unsettled?
‘We need certainty in order for us to invest in mines,’ she told Miningmx, adding that governments, companies and society now have different expectations of what mining should deliver.
It is an awkward moment for a country that needs both stronger returns from its mineral resources and continued investment to replace declining output at mature mines.
Higher gold royalties change the arithmetic
Ghana introduced a sliding-scale gold royalty in March, with rates ranging from five to 12 percent depending on the international gold price. The approach replaces the previous standard five percent rate and allows the state to collect more during a price boom.
Unlike a profits tax, a royalty is charged on revenue. That distinction matters: a mine can face a higher royalty bill even when its own costs are rising.
The change follows the expiry of Newmont’s 10-year Ghana investment stability agreement on December 31, 2025. The company’s corporate income tax rate consequently rose to 35 percent, alongside other changes to its fiscal obligations.
In its first-quarter 2026 results, Newmont estimated that the new royalty rules, offset in part by the government’s reduction of the Growth and Sustainability Levy from three to one percent, could add about $185 per ounce to all-in sustaining costs at its Ghana operations. That was an estimate of the potential impact, not a measured cost increase.
Newmont subsequently acknowledged in its second-quarter results that a full quarter of higher Ghanaian royalties had affected its costs.
The compromise on the levy, also examined in Africa Briefing‘s coverage of Ghana’s mining taxes, shows that the government has not ignored industry concerns. But companies still want to know how the wider rules will settle.
Ahafo puts the investment question in focus
Newmont’s Ahafo operations illustrate why the debate has consequences beyond boardrooms.
At Ahafo South, the company forecast 2026 production of 440,000 ounces, down from 664,000 ounces in 2025. Its February guidance put all-in sustaining costs at $2,160 per ounce, before the additional impact of the revised royalty arrangements was included.
Ahafo North, which began commercial production in October 2025, is forecast to produce 315,000 ounces this year.
For a business planning underground development or a mine expansion, the calculation is not simply whether gold is profitable today. It is whether a project can earn a return through years of changing prices, costs and production levels.
No cancellation of an Ahafo expansion has been announced. The immediate issue is what confidence Newmont and other miners will have when assessing their next investments.
Ghana signals room for compromise
The government is also reconsidering a contentious provision in its proposed Minerals and Mining Bill, 2026.
According to Reuters reporting on October 9, officials expect to replace the draft before Parliament with a version restoring a maximum mining lease of 20 years. The published draft would have capped new leases at 15 years, compared with up to 30 years under the existing law.
The expected change would bring the bill back into line with the government’s stated July policy. It is not yet an enacted amendment, and Reuters did not establish when the revised text would be introduced.
The Ghana Chamber of Mines has reported progress in discussions with the authorities, although questions remain about state participation and other provisions. As Africa Briefing has explored, the bill also touches on local processing and the government’s powers over mining assets.
There is a powerful economic case behind Ghana’s demands. According to the Bank of Ghana, the country earned $20.98bn from gold exports in 2025, more than double the previous year’s figure. Those are export earnings, not the amount paid into government coffers.
The government wants more of the industry’s value to stay in Ghana through taxes, local contracts, processing and community development. Its proposed mining law would require community development agreements and expand local involvement in licensing.
For communities living alongside mines, those promises need to produce visible improvements. For companies, a dependable framework matters because today’s investment decisions determine what can be mined years from now.
Ghana has already shown a willingness to amend parts of its approach. The real test will be whether the final rules offer both a fairer return for the country and enough confidence to keep investment flowing.
Credit: Africa Briefing
