The Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG), an advocacy organisation fostering stronger ties between Africa and global markets, is preparing for potential shifts in US policy as Donald Trump assumes the presidency. With critical minerals central to both economic and geopolitical strategies, the group’s leadership is navigating the implications for African mining projects under the incoming administration.
New policy focus on security
Olimpia Pilch, Chief Strategy Officer at CMAG, predicts that the Trump administration’s priority on national security will significantly influence critical minerals funding. Projects linked to US defence supply chains, speciality alloys, and other sectors deemed vital for national interests may receive increased backing.
‘While we might see a rise in US funding for critical mineral projects, this depends on several factors,’ Pilch explains. ‘These include unlocking domestic US sources, real-time demand trends, GDP growth, and the availability of cheaper ore from alternative jurisdictions.’
In contrast, she notes, projects tied to renewable energy and the green transition—emphasised under the Biden administration—are less likely to attract US government support.
Challenges for African nations
Pilch highlights that the US’s intensified focus on security could hinder the ambitions of some African nations to process and refine minerals locally. High investment risks tied to regional instability, unreliable energy, and infrastructure deficits may deter US-backed refinery projects.
‘US entities are unlikely to accept the high-risk profile of multi-billion-dollar refinery investments in volatile regions,’ she says. ‘Additionally, countries with strong Chinese influence are less likely to attract US private sector interest, given the intensifying US-China rivalry.’
Despite these challenges, Pilch identifies opportunities for African nations to progress down the value chain by producing critical mineral concentrates. She emphasises that relatively stable countries like Botswana, Rwanda, Namibia, and Ghana stand to gain, provided their governments align with Western deal-making practices.
CMAG’s role in navigating the transition
CMAG CEO Veronica Bolton Smith underscores the group’s commitment to bridging gaps between Africa and Western markets to create mutually beneficial outcomes.
‘CMAG is working closely with its members and partners to ensure a smooth transition as companies evaluate how the new administration’s policies will shape the critical minerals industry,’ says Bolton Smith. ‘Our priority is to catalyse value for both African nations and Western stakeholders.’
The organisation remains focused on fostering partnerships that support Africa’s critical minerals sector while addressing the concerns and priorities of Western investors under the new US administration.
Outlook for Africa-US relations
As the Trump administration prepares to redefine its stance on critical minerals, industry players are watching closely. The emphasis on security and US-China competition could reshape investment patterns, but African nations with stable governance and favourable policies could still attract support.
CMAG’s efforts to mediate these dynamics reflect the group’s mission to position Africa at the centre of global critical minerals discussions. Their work aims to ensure that both African producers and international markets find a path forward amidst evolving US policy priorities.
