Artificial intelligence may not trigger immediate mass job losses in Nigeria, but it is already beginning to reshape how people earn a living—especially in the country’s large informal economy, where income is often unstable and weakly protected.
This is according to Dr. Vincent Dania, a PhD researcher on artificial intelligence and labour market risks at the Institute of Social Policy and Strategic Studies, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, warns that the most significant impact of AI will be less visible than widespread layoffs.
Instead of dramatic job cuts, he says the early effects will appear through declining earnings, changing work conditions, and increasing reliance on automated systems that quietly determine access to work and pay.
“The first sign of artificial intelligence disruption in Nigeria will not be a robot in a factory,” Dania noted. “It will be quieter than that.”
He pointed to emerging trends already visible in sectors such as banking, logistics, freelance work, and customer service. These include the use of chatbots, automated fraud detection systems, algorithm-driven rider management on delivery platforms, and generative AI tools replacing entry-level digital tasks.
According to him, while these technologies may improve efficiency, they are also changing the structure of work in ways that reduce routine tasks and increase income volatility.
Informal workers most exposed
Nigeria’s labour market, where a large proportion of workers operate outside formal employment, presents a unique challenge for managing AI disruption.
Dania noted that unlike advanced economies where job losses are typically visible through layoffs and unemployment statistics, the Nigerian context is more complex. Many workers may remain “employed” but experience reduced earnings or exclusion from work opportunities controlled by digital platforms.
“In such a system, AI disruption will not first appear as visible job losses,” he explained. “It will manifest as declining commissions, shrinking demand for routine services, and weakening bargaining power.”
He added that platform workers are particularly vulnerable, as algorithmic systems increasingly determine visibility, pay rates, and even account deactivation—often without clear explanations.
Banks, tech and entry-level jobs at risk
While low-income and informal workers are expected to feel the immediate effects, Dania also warned that higher-skilled sectors are not immune.
He highlighted banking and information technology as areas where automation is rapidly expanding, particularly in customer service, compliance, and back-office operations. These changes, he said, could reduce entry-level opportunities that traditionally serve as the first step into formal employment.
“AI is already being deployed in fraud detection, customer support, risk analysis and administrative functions,” he said, noting that such shifts may gradually reduce demand for clerical and support staff.
Calls for policy preparedness
The researcher cautioned against both complacency and panic in responding to AI-driven changes.
He argued that assuming AI is a distant concern would be a mistake, as digital tools are already embedded in mobile platforms, banking systems, and workplace software across the country. At the same time, he warned against assuming that technology will automatically lead to mass unemployment.
Citing global labour research, he said technological change often reshapes tasks rather than eliminating jobs entirely, with outcomes depending heavily on policy and institutional response.
Push for stronger social protection
Dania called for a redesign of Nigeria’s social protection system to address what he described as “labour-market transition risks” rather than only poverty relief.
He said current systems are too narrowly focused on formal employment and are not equipped to support informal and platform workers who may experience sudden income losses without being officially unemployed.
Among the key proposals he outlined are:
A labour-market AI risk monitoring system to track job exposure and income changes
Portable social protection benefits that follow workers across formal and informal jobs
Income support linked to retraining programmes for displaced workers
Regulation of algorithmic management systems to ensure transparency and accountability
Conditions attached to public incentives for AI adoption, requiring firms to plan for worker transition
‘AI policy is social policy’
Dania stressed that discussions about artificial intelligence should not be limited to innovation and productivity, but must also include labour protection and social stability.
“AI policy is also social policy,” he said. “If people experience AI as a force that increases insecurity while concentrating on opportunity, resistance will grow.”
He argued that countries that manage AI effectively will be those that balance technological adoption with strong labour institutions and adaptive social protection systems.
Preparing for a gradual shift
While he acknowledged that AI will not cause an immediate labour crisis, Dania warned that its cumulative effects could significantly alter Nigeria’s labour market over time.
“The next labour-market shock may be written in code,” he said, adding that the challenge is to ensure that technological change does not deepen existing economic vulnerabilities.
According to him, the key task for policymakers is not to delay AI adoption, but to ensure that the transition is managed in a way that protects livelihoods and expands opportunities rather than destabilising them.
